Apple's iPad Pro outsold Microsoft's Surface tablet last quarter

iou90

idc的数据让我想起 evans 在 ipad pro 发售前的那篇文章
http://ben-evans.com/benedicteva ... nd-the-death-of-pcs

可以说比@ganeid 奆奆你吹的还狠，内容的丰富程度也更多（虽然后面基本私货 如今ipad pro的开局，第一季度销量2m 肯定是算成功了吧？有空来作未来趋势的看法谈谈吗
http://bbs.saraba1st.com/2b/foru ... ighlight=ipad%2Bpro



@nonmoi 你曾经对 evans 这篇嗤之以鼻 但你也认同 ipad pro 上 ios 是比上 osx 正确的多的结论 同样来谈谈吧



至于@qratosone 同学，相信你会不请自来，毕竟... ipad pro 暴死了 难道不是？


idc具体新闻：
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., February 1, 2016 – Despite the holiday season, the worldwide tablet market declined yet again in the fourth quarter of 2015 (4Q15) with 65.9 million units shipped, down -13.7% year over year, according to preliminary data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker. Total shipments for 2015 were 206.8 million, down -10.1% from 230.1 million in the prior year. Despite the market's negative trajectory overall, shipments for detachable tablets reached an all-time high of 8.1 million devices.

The transition towards detachable devices appears to be in full swing as pure slate tablets experienced their greatest annual decline to date of -21.1%. On the other hand, detachable tablets more than doubled their shipments since the fourth quarter of last year.

"This quarter was unique as we had new detachables in the market from all three of the major platform players," said Jitesh Ubrani, Senior Research Analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. "Despite lukewarm reviews, the iPad Pro was the clear winner this season as it was the top selling detachable, surpassing notable entries from Microsoft and other PC vendors. It's also important to note that the transition towards detachable tablets has presented positive opportunities for both Apple and Microsoft. However, Google's recent foray into this space has been rather lackluster as the Android platform will require a lot more refinement to achieve any measurable success."

Perhaps the most interesting trend to note is that prices on slate tablets have not yet hit rock bottom. Amazon’s $50 (or $42 for bulk shoppers) tablet was the holiday season's surprise hit, garnering the number 3 rank among the worldwide top 5. Rival vendors like Huawei and Lenovo also continued to focus on the low end while also expanding outside their home country China.

"One of the biggest reasons why detachables are growing so fast is because end users are seeing those devices as PC replacements," said Jean Philippe Bouchard, Research Director, Tablets at IDC. "We believe Apple sold just over two million iPad Pros while Microsoft sold around 1.6 million Surface devices, a majority of which were Surface Pro and not the more affordable Surface 3. With these results, it's clear that price is not the most important feature considered when acquiring a detachable – performance is."

Tablet Vendor Highlights

Apple's reign as market leader continued in 4Q15 though the company faced a -24.8% year-over-year decline. With the successful launch of the iPad Pro, the company was able to curb the decline in iPad revenues as its model mix shifted towards higher priced iPads.

Samsung managed to keep its second position in the market though it did decline by -18.1% compared to last year. Samsung is the vendor with the deepest tablet portfolio and manages to reach multiple price points and screen sizes, a position that will facilitate the transition to detachables in 2016.

Amazon's latest Kindle iteration piqued everyone's interest with its low price point, allowing Amazon's annual growth to reach 175.7%, the highest amongst the top 5. Amazon's success in the tablet market has thus far been purely based on price. While this bodes well during the holiday season, it's unlikely the Kindle's success will continue in the remainder of the year.

Lenovo maintained its market share in the last quarter of 2015, shipping 3.2 million units for a -13.5% decline over the same period last year. However, the Yoga, MIIX, and Thinkpad brands' combined traditional PC savoir faire should help Lenovo regain market share in 2016.

Huawei's focus remains on cellular-connected tablets and international expansion. The company has positioned itself well in the adjacent smartphone market and its popularity is likely to bleed over into the tablet market.

iou90

refo2613 发表于 2016-2-2 09:27
lz求翻译一下

evans 的文章标题直译就是 移动，生态系统与个人电脑之死 内容自然是论证

idc的数据就下面几个点

全世界平板出货环比下降
detachable devices （比如 ipad pro 比如 windows 2 in 1设备）出货增长两倍以上
而传统平板（主要指 sans keyboard 平板，额 其实这么说也不准确 毕竟 ipad android tablet 也都可以接键盘的）出货急剧下降
ipad pro 很明显在这个季度在 detachable devices 市场中领跑

nonmoi

没有什么新的可说的，单就他列出的四点再谈谈看法

    First, iOS and Android are a step change in ease of use over Windows and MacOS. Microsoft has arguably matched this on phones, but on 'PCs' all the complexity to support the old way of doing things has to stay - including things like supporting interchangeable hardware. If you like tinkering with your computer this step change is bad (just as the move from command lines to GUIs was), but it enables far more people to use these things.

虽然在这里，PCs被认为是“old way of doing things” ，但是从逻辑上来说“old way”并不等于是错误的或者低效的，Mobile代表的“new way”并不一定必然会取代所有所谓PC的“旧”的关键任务处理模式，更多的情况或许更可能是拓展或者辅助了既有的关键模式，这种情况下，作为决策者，因应实际的需要，选取最适合的产品或者产品组合从而达到费效比最大化才是关键。单纯的站派别并非智者所取。

    Second, iOS, ChromeOS and (debatably) Android have a fundamentally better security model. This comes with reduced openness, but now that the threat is not a floppy with a virus-infected copy of Leisure Suit Larry but 500 people in a foreign country hacking your Financial Controller's assistant's child's preschool to send spear-phishing emails, that's a much more valuable tradeoff.

这个太多可吐槽的，但就说这个例子吧，在这个情况下有完善的用户和权限管理，整套安全生态支持的windows明显要比所谓更安全的移动OS更有抗击此类攻击的能力。
但是，不论是PC或者移动的安全模式，都对应付钓鱼攻击极为苦手，所以这个比较也只是相对而言，或者说钓鱼攻击本身就与操作系统安全性无关，任何操作系统本身对这种类型的攻击并没有什么特别好的解决方案。
推而广之，本来就没有什么绝对安全的系统，保持安全还需要用户个人和各级厂商的共同努力——而在这点上，碎片化极为严重的安卓是更不利的，仅去年就发生了超过两起让大量安卓设备用户因设备无法及时升级而持续曝露在攻击阴影下的安全隐患。（stagefright， AOSP browser）
这方面比较好的解决方案现在看应该是GRC的SQRL登录系统，但是这一套开源方案还未定版，普及恐怕还要几年的时间（如果业界快速接纳的话）。
从代码安全性来说，除了微软之前的midori以外，并没有什么特别新特别让人激动的东西。（仅就消费面向的平台来说）
   

Third, the ARM ecosystem has a fundamental power-consumption advantage over x86 and a fundamental advantage in the scale of the industry investment around it

恐怕很多人会对此持有异议。

    And fourth, the broader scale advantage - the ARM/iOS/Android ecosystem is moving towards selling 10x more devices each year than the Wintel ecosystem. That's a similar disparity to that between PowerPC/Mac and Wintel 20 years ago. So this is where all the innovation is - in semiconductors, in components and in software. No-one is going to found a new company to make Win32 applications (though enterprise Windows apps will be worked on for a  long time,  just as mainframe apps were).

同第一点，如果两者并非绝对的替代性关系，那么很有可能是并存的，然后移动的体量比较大（种种迹象来看，移动设备的增长似乎开始触及平顶），这样一个局势。
在这种情况下，固然移动操作系统会随时间进化“兼容”原属于PC环境的各种旧而有效的方式（比如键鼠）；PC操作系统也会有类似的发展，在这种情况下说PC已死，相当于诸般批评社会或共产主义的言论——无非是不允许对手随时间发展=立一个臆想中的稻草人来作为批判的靶子。
现时的情况是，两边在跨界上都做得不怎么样，固然理论上积少成多的移动操作系统可能会更容易地完成跨界，但是PC平台（以windows为代表）更早发力也做出了不少的努力，鹿死谁手还很难一眼而定。
退一万步说，不论最后谁跨界成功，那它也就不再是现今意义上的移动或者pc操作系统了，而是新一代的跨设备操作系统。（我觉得有两点需要达成：统一体验（！=同一ui）、同用户环境内的设备互动）
散开来说，这样的一套系统极为可能是比之前的PC环境更强垄断、更加封闭的，而个人计算设备的”智能化“最终也许会带来的并不是我们所希求的科技民主化，而是计算技术传统媒体化——用动漫圈的记忆来说，就是不再是G社能够产生的时代，甚至对宅的评判都已经改变，泛宅化的当下。
并非不好，只是大概多数人展望的都不是这样的未来吧？

iou90

refo2613 发表于 2016-2-2 10:12
好，那LZ买了IPAD PRO了么？

好
ipad pro 没买
surface 系列目前身边也一个都没
没资格讨论这个问题？

tonyunreal

娱乐平板销量打败了生产力工具不是很正常吗

iou90

nonmoi 发表于 2016-2-2 10:13
没有什么新的可说的，单就他列出的四点再谈谈看法

虽然在这里，PCs被认为是“old way of doing things”  ...

关于你最后的分析 局势的形成都是伴随趋势的

当然，关于你对 pc之死的言论的评价比喻，我倒是很赞同，就像 马尔萨斯的人口论 简直像极了！
积少成多更容易跨界 额 这个... 至少水果目前是这么尝试的
但 windows 2 in 1 在跨界方面的种种困难又是跟巨硬的各种现实情况分不开 虽然跟 evans 的分析差距不小 但生态系统的现实 想必人人都清楚 当然，如何形成肯定不是文章中那么多私货参杂来论证的就是了

目前的状况很有趣 这个"跨界"的市场最初是 windows 2 in 1 在耕耘 surface pro 3 发布迎来了第一波爆发
这个财季 ipad pro 推波助澜，首发50天就已经领跑了

而关于你新一代跨设备操作系统...额 也就是说水果至少也会尝试 ios osx的融合吗 目前还很难看到踪迹吧

nonmoi

iou90 发表于 2016-2-2 10:41
关于你最后的分析 局势的形成都是伴随趋势的

当然，关于你对 pc之死的言论的评价比喻，我倒是很赞同，就 ...

苹果的尝试不就是ios上大屏幕么？
不过老实说，我觉得苹果最后给人作嫁衣裳的可能性是很大的——硬件太单一了，商业模式非常固定的情况下也几乎看不到开放的可能性。
能不能维持现在这种安卓给ios垫脚，苹果站着把利润收割了的情况，看得明白的话至少能在苹果股票上赚个20%吧？

事实上，单从用户体验上来说，最理想的情况也可以不是所谓单一的融合的os。
另一种可能是泛用开放功能强大的桌面os配对特化的移动os+最小化的iot内核，通过一系列类似deepsync的api来进行互动实现无缝体验。
有一套自洽的安全性和效率极为平衡的语言提供跨平台开发，但是对应平台则仍支持其他的更优、更多人使用或者更有效率的开发方式。
当然，这一套方案的问题基本是非技术的，商业的，在开放环境下是难以事先的——但是苹果的生态本身并非是一个开放竞争的环境不是么？

nonononono

关公战秦琼

qiaogaohhb

ipad pro对应的是iPadair。
surfacepro的目标也一直是mac pro。

都不在一个战场，确实是关公战秦琼。












----发送自 STAGE1 App for Android.

lowirve

买surfacepro和买ipadpro是干一样的事吗，同样的，苹果可以把ipad也算成“个人电脑”。哦，苹果已经这样干了。

iou90

qiaogaohhb 发表于 2016-2-2 11:02
ipad pro对应的是iPadair。
surfacepro的对手与目标也一直是mac pro。

没错 从 sp3 开始 巨硬就一直说要和 macbook 比
隐喻就是在 pc 衰落的大环境下创造新市场
但这个市场究竟多新？这个市场的发展甚至就是因为向 pc 传统软件的妥协才获得的

至于 ipad pro 对应 ipad air 当然有一定道理
但要不是为了 detachable devices 这个市场 推出新的 air 不好？
而且 ios 的种种变化 800往上的asp
同样的产品形态 不同在于软件与软件生态的不同 虽然目前更明显的是应用领域的不同 但你得承认有趋势这种东西 evans 的文章可以当狗屁 但是也说明了一些基本事实

霸王哆啦

几年前只看s1我还以为z3c是世界上卖的最好的手机呢。

ganeid

qratosone 发表于 2016-2-2 11:43
ipp第一个月在中国就卖了5w台，现在中国市场对苹果已经如此重要了，那么剩下的销量是怎么凑出来的？ ...

不知道啦

1. +1.508.872.8200

复制代码

这是IDC的电话，你去问问咯

Hermit_lx

不是说取代pc么，原来只有surface是pc啊

tonyunreal

zuikaku 发表于 2016-2-2 11:34
我就问一句，爱派德pro有啥好的码码工具不？
有就入

有文本编辑器比如Textastic，但没编译环境
像前端这种职业，如果需要临时改改上传就测，应该没问题

defer

有什么可争的，surface粉或黑的焦点在于这是不是一个有价值的产品。
除非猪油蒙了心，不然怎么可能觉得一个连消消乐都没有的玩意能大卖？

我见过两个买ipp的了，原因很简单。沙发看剧看的爽，你刚才说那个词叫什么力？我没听过。啊，笔我也没买，我就看个剧玩玩游戏。我跟你说，我打到XX关了……

霸王哆啦

一堆买sp4的不也就是摸黄油撸啊撸，你们这互相看不起的样子真叫人费解。