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E3\'s Most Popular Rumors: Will They Happen?
Thumbs up, down on PS3 price cuts, DNF appearing, more.
By 1UP Staff, 07/06/2007
Who doesn\'t love a good rumor? Even though much of the fun has been taken out of this year\'s E3, that doesn\'t mean we shouldn\'t expect a few surprises out of left field. Those are the kinds of announcements you don\'t expect, however. 1UP decided to take a look at a few of the rumors people have desperately hoping will show up and whether there\'s enough substance to expect they\'ll come true.
Let us know your own theories about these and rumors we missed (believe us, there are plenty!) in the comments. Make sure to tune into our week-long coverage, starting Monday with The 1UP Show E3 predictions segment and Tuesday\'s Microsoft press conference, which we\'ll be both live blogging and streaming!
The Rumor: PlayStation 3 to Receive Price Drop
The Evidence: When PlayStation 3 launched in November, most balked at the price points ($499/20GB, $599/60GB), but more shocking was the negative margin on each console. Next Generation reported Sony was losing more than $300 on each 20GB console, $240 on each 60GB. Lower than expected sales and higher losses eventually led to the elimination of the 20GB console, but the 60GB unit soldiers on.
But, if losing hundreds on each console is Sony\'s way of getting the units into houses, it\'s not working that well. NPD numbers have yet to be made available for June, but between March and May, it appears that just 293,600 consoles sold through to North American consumers, compared to 528,000 for Xbox 360 and 957,000 for Wii. Even PlayStation 2 is handily outselling its younger sibling, moving 664,000 consoles in that same span.
Consumers may be voting with their dollars, but the complaints are starting to come from more prominent and public sources. Just recently, Sega and Ubisoft called for price cuts, while analysts from Savner to Sebastian have chimed in with similar comments. Even the mainstream press is involved, with the Los Angeles Times asserting in a May feature that Sony was facing an \"uphill climb.\"
Sony\'s initial reaction had been negative, with high-ranking officials saying the console was \"probably too cheap,\" that features of other consoles were \"last-gen,\" and that the PlayStation 3\'s rampant availability was due solely to increased production. More recently, the company seems to be coming back down to earth, acknowledging that not all is perfect in the land of PlayStation. Sony CEO/Chairman Howard Stringer told the Financial Times in May that \"the public would like the cost to be lower,\" and that price cuts were what they were \"studying at the moment.\"
Remember, there is precedent for a PlayStation price drop within the first year. Back in 1996, Sony slashed the price of the original PlayStation by $100 dollars (from $299 to $199) just nine months after release. However, it took the PlayStation 2 an additional year beyond that to drop, and it\'s hard to pinpoint when exactly the PSP dropped in price, considering the various value packs that have graced store shelves since its March 2005 launch.
Just as we were putting the finishing touches on the above evidence, a scan of a forthcoming Circuit City flyer came down the rumor mill, advertising a $100 price break on the 60GB model. Sony didn\'t have much to say on the topic, first labeling it a rumor, then refusing to comment once the scan started circulating. GameDaily BIZ verified the upcoming drop with a \"merchandising manager at one of the world\'s biggest retailers,\" so barring an orchestrated hoax, we can thank the lengthy lead times of the print industry for this massive tip.
The Verdict: Previously, we were undecided about the prospect of a price drop (due to Sony\'s varying opinions on the matter), but with the revelation of the Circuit City scan, it looks like a drop is imminent. The five free Blu-ray movie promotion starting this month doesn\'t hurt, either.
The Rumor: Nintendo Announces Wii Hard Drive
The Evidence: As more and more Virtual Console content became available, gamers started wondering where they were supposed to store everything. Technically, Nintendo allows you to delete games off the internal memory, store them on an SD card and download them again at no additional charge, but most would rather have everything available to them at all times, so a hard drive accessory seems natural for the hardcore gamers wanting it all. So far, though, Nintendo\'s said that\'s not in the cards.
As with anything, that isn\'t necessarily true, especially considering Nintendo most recently announced Wii Ware, a new software development platform to debut on Wii not unlike Xbox Live Arcade and what\'s been featured on the PlayStation Store. Studios were just introduced to Wii Ware, however, which means games aren\'t actually anticipated until early in 2008. Still, the hints have been there all along, with Telltale Games being one of the original instigators. The studio expressed an interest in getting the Sam & Max episodic games onto Wii at some point, eventually leading to a public outcry until Nintendo got in touch with them.
While Telltale isn\'t officially bringing Sam & Max to Wii Ware (yet), it seems a likely target, but regardless, original software is going to quickly outstrip the memory sizes of the 8-bit, 16-bit and 64-bit releases we\'ve seen so far. Nintendo has shot down previous rumors about a hard drive, even passing on a flat out \"no\" after the Wii Ware announcement was made.
Lending more credence to the idea that Nintendo needs a hard drive for Wii was the April announcement that SNK\'s planning to bring Neo Geo onto Virtual Console in the coming months and the immense size of those games suggests a hard drive would be necessary.
The Verdict: Nintendo\'s already announced the Wii Ware concept, but no partnerships. E3 seems like a good time for them to parade some signed on publishers and developers and confirm the add-on. There, however, lies their biggest problem: it\'s an add-on. Can Nintendo convince gamers picking up an optional accessory is worth the extra change?
The Rumor: Duke Nukem Forever to Debut...Again
The Evidence: Sure, Duke Nukem Forever may be the whipping boy of skeptical gamers everywhere, but with ten years of development time under its belt, it has to come out some day... right? Before you run off sighing and shaking your head, there has actually been a surprising amount of evidence this year pointing towards an impending reveal of more Duke info.
Earlier in the year, erstwhile and eternal developers 3D Realms eked out a couple of supposedly in-game Duke Nukem screenshots. These screenshots came alongside job postings that presumably expanded the development team to help push them along. There were also hints that the game was was being scored (generally one of the final stages in game development) by Jeremy and Julian Soule, though that\'s as of yet unconfirmed. Furthermore, 3D Realms CEO Scott Miller has stated in several interviews that they prefer showing off their stuff at E3 -- we assume that holds over to E3\'s new form. He\'s also said that an unveiling of the game for multiple platforms should be happening in 2007.
Unfortunately, there\'s one big thing working against a surprising Duke Nukem Forever reveal at E3. Last month 3D Realms Creative Director Raphael Van Lierop stated that the company had two big announcements coming in the next six months -- neither of them about the Duke. One new game, Earth No More, was already announced, but we\'re still waiting on the second, non-DNF pronouncement. That could easily happen at E3, placing our old friend Duke once again on the backburners as an easy punchline. Most damning of all, 3D Realms continues to state on the Duke Nukem Forever forums that they are not going to E3.
The Verdict: Unless the 3D Realms staff are feeding us red herring and ten years of cynical gamers\' intuition is misleading us, we\'re voting unlikely for this one. Raise your fists into the sky and let out a Metal Gear Solid-style \"DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUKE!\"
The Rumor: PSP Gets Redesign it Deserves
The Evidence: We\'ve been reading about potential changes to the PlayStation Portable\'s design since launch, and every time a story cropped up, Sony shot it down. However, this year there those clamoring for a redesign might just get their wish. Rumors have surfaced on and off for years, with chatter picking up new traction every few months, and in mid-June Kotaku reported more of what we\'ve heard before.
\"The new Playstation Portable will have a much slimmer design, thanks mostly to a new LED screen that will deliver an ultra-crisp image but take up far less space. That LED also helps pump up the battery life of this sexy new model, which can last as much as four times longer than the original PSP. While the new PSP still makes use of the UMD drive, it will be a faster version and to help speed up loadtimes and gameplay, the portable will come packed with 8GBs of internal flash memory. Finally, the PSP\'s much maligned buttons have been revamped and the D-Pad has gotten a major overhaul, giving portable gamers something more like a Playstation 3 D-pad to play with.\"
The above is pretty consistent with everything that\'s been rumored so far. Most believe the inevitable redesign will involve a sliming of the system, the addition of flash memory and potentially a camera. However, don\'t expect to lose the UMDs anytime soon -- Sony recently stated they\'re committed to supporting the format, regardless of how much people would like to see them move past it. Plus, removal of UMD support would effectively kill the system\'s library so far. But, that doesn\'t mean they couldn\'t launch a music/movie/game store (as has been promised with PS One games in the past) for the flash memory.
The Verdict: Our crystal ball is foggy and E3 may not be the place for them to rejuvenate the PSP -- the PS3 is more important at this point -- but we\'ll keep our fingers crossed for a surprise.
[ 本帖最后由 Zhen_Link 于 2007-7-8 13:55 编辑 ]
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